Almabayev vs Horiguchi: #7 Grappler Meets #5 Striker at Flyweight

Two ranked flyweights, two opposite game plans. #7 Asu Almabayev and #5 Kyoji Horiguchi meet at UFC Fight Night: Prochazka vs Stirling at ABHA Arena in Doha on Nov. 21, and the matchup boils down to two numbers: Almabayev's 4.74 takedowns per 15 minutes and Horiguchi's 15 knockout wins.

Almabayev, the 32-year-old Kazakh known as "Zulfikar," is 24-3 and wins the grappler's way: 11 submissions, 10 decisions, three knockouts. Since his Octagon debut in August 2023 he has averaged 4.74 takedowns and 1.44 submission attempts per 15 minutes, with a quarter of his significant strikes (25%) landing on the ground. His striking is tidy rather than heavy (2.28 landed per minute at 51% accuracy), and he absorbs only 1.94, the lowest figure in this matchup. The weak spots are a 54% striking defense and a 44% takedown defense.

Horiguchi, the 35-year-old "Karate Kid" from Japan, is 36-6 and first stepped into the Octagon back in October 2013. He's the striker here: 15 wins by KO/TKO, 15 by decision, six by submission, and 10 first-round finishes. In the UFC he lands 3.64 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy against 2.08 absorbed, avoids 64% of incoming strikes and averages 0.59 knockdowns, more than four times Almabayev's 0.14. He can wrestle, too, with 1.67 takedowns per 15 minutes and 61% takedown defense.

Both men stand 64 inches, but Horiguchi's 69-inch reach is four inches longer. At range he has the length, the volume and the power. On the mat the edge flips: Almabayev's 1.44 submission attempts per 15 minutes dwarf Horiguchi's 0.10. A lot rides on that 61% takedown defense, because Almabayev shoots often and keeps shooting. Their average fight times are close: 13:03 and 13:53. The key question: how often can Almabayev drag this to the floor, and how much damage can Horiguchi do on the feet in between?

Prelims open at 6 p.m. local time, and the main card follows at 9 p.m. Get your seat: Almabayev vs Horiguchi tickets for Nov. 21.