Dober vs Duncan Preview: Knockouts vs Takedowns in a UFC 334 Lightweight Clash

As strikers, Drew Dober and Chris Duncan look almost identical on paper. Where they part ways is how they finish fights, and that's what makes their lightweight matchup at UFC 334 at Madison Square Garden on Nov. 14 worth circling.

Dober, 37, is a longtime UFC veteran who debuted in December 2013 and carries a 29-15 record. Duncan, "The Problem," is four years younger at 33, arrived in the UFC in March 2023 and is 15-3. The Scotsman is a touch bigger, 2 inches taller with a 1.5-inch reach edge (71.5 inches to 70).

The striking numbers are about as close as it gets. Duncan lands 4.83 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy; Dober lands 4.48 at 41%. Both get hit plenty, too: Duncan absorbs 4.57 a minute with 51% striking defense, Dober 4.33 with 53%. Even their average fight times line up, 7:42 for Duncan and 7:56 for Dober.

The differences show up in the details:

• Power: Dober has 17 knockout wins (59% of his victories), 10 first-round finishes and a 0.68 knockdown average. Duncan has seven knockouts (47%), six first-round finishes and a 0.58 knockdown average.
• Wrestling: Duncan averages 2.92 takedowns per 15 minutes, almost five times Dober's 0.61. He also attempts 0.58 submissions per 15 minutes, compared with Dober's 0.07.
• Win methods: Dober adds seven decisions and five submissions to those knockouts. Duncan's 15 break down into seven knockouts, four submissions and four decisions.
• Takedown defense: Neither is a brick wall here, with Dober at 58% and Duncan at 56%.

Dober lands 79% of his significant strikes standing, 11% in the clinch and 9% on the ground; Duncan's split is 83% standing and 11% on the mat. So the big question is a strategic one: does Duncan lean on his wrestling to keep this from turning into a slugfest with a 17-time knockout winner, or does he trust his hands in a striking battle where the numbers are nearly even?

Early prelims start at 5 p.m. local time, followed by the prelims at 7 p.m. and the main card at 9 p.m. Lock in your seat: UFC 334 tickets for Dober vs Duncan.