Hooker vs Ortega Preview: Six Inches of Reach vs a Submission Threat

Six inches of reach. That is the gap Brian Ortega has to close when he meets Dan Hooker at lightweight on November 21 at ABHA Arena in Doha. New Zealand's "The Hangman" (#13, 24-15) has a 75-inch reach to 69 for the American "T-City" (16-5, unranked at lightweight), and he is four inches taller, 72 to 68. Hooker is 36, Ortega 35.

On the feet, the UFC.com numbers favor Hooker. He lands 4.82 significant strikes per minute at 49% accuracy; Ortega lands 3.84 at 37%. Ortega also absorbs 6.38 per minute against Hooker's 4.94, even though both men defend exactly 49% of significant strikes. Hooker's knockdown average is 0.55, Ortega's 0.39.

Here's the twist: Ortega does an even bigger share of his striking at distance than Hooker does, 89% against 85%, with only 7% in the clinch and 5% on the ground. Yet his results come from somewhere else entirely. Eight of his 16 wins, exactly half, are submissions, with three knockouts and five decisions. In the UFC he averages 0.93 submission attempts and 0.93 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Hooker is more well-rounded than his striking profile suggests. His 24 wins break down into 11 knockouts (46%), seven submissions (29%) and six decisions (25%), and he has 12 first-round finishes. He averages 0.55 submission attempts and 0.67 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he has the better takedown defense, stopping 77% of attempts to Ortega's 55%. Their fights also run to different lengths: 9:50 on average for Hooker, 13:49 for Ortega.

So the shape of the fight is clear enough. At range, Hooker has the reach, the accuracy and the better defensive numbers; on the mat, Ortega is the one with the finishing record. The question that decides it: can Ortega get past the length of a fighter who outlands him, and find a way to the floor against someone who turns away 77% of takedowns?

Doha's card starts with the prelims at 6 p.m. local time, and the main card begins at 9 p.m. Grab your seats now: Hooker vs Ortega tickets in Doha.