Moicano vs Nolan: A Submission Veteran Against 'Big Train' Power

Brazil's Renato Moicano (#12, 21-7-1) has been competing in the Octagon since December 2014. Australia's Tom "Big Train" Nolan (#14, 11-1) made his debut in January 2024. On Oct. 31, the 37-year-old and the 26-year-old headline UFC Fight Night at Meta APEX in Las Vegas in a lightweight matchup between two ranked contenders.

Nolan is the bigger man, standing 6-foot-3 to Moicano's 5-foot-11, though the reach gap is a single inch (73 to 72). He's also the busier striker, landing 4.84 significant strikes per minute to Moicano's 4.10, and he does more of his damage up close: 16% of his significant strikes land in the clinch, compared with just 3% for the Brazilian. The trade-off shows on defense. Nolan avoids 49% of the significant strikes thrown his way, Moicano 60%, while both absorb roughly the same number (3.74 and 3.55 per minute).

Where it gets interesting is how each man finishes fights. Moicano has 11 submission wins and only two knockouts, with 52% of his victories coming by tapout. He also does more work on the mat: 14% of his significant strikes land on the ground, twice Nolan's 7%. Nolan is the mirror image: five knockouts, one submission, five first-round finishes and a 0.54 knockdown average, more than three times Moicano's 0.16.

The grappling numbers come with a twist. Moicano is the better takedown defender, stopping 64% of attempts to Nolan's 58%, but it's Nolan who hunts submissions more often, at 1.35 attempts per 15 minutes against Moicano's 0.56, so the Australian is no passenger on the mat.

Then there's the clock. Nolan's UFC fights average 7:55, Moicano's 9:24, and 38% of the Brazilian's wins have gone to the judges. Which leaves one question: can the veteran weather the early storm and drag this to the floor, where those 11 submission wins live, or does "Big Train" land the knockdown first?

Prelims start at 2 p.m. local time, with the main card at 5 p.m. Grab your seat: Moicano vs Nolan tickets.