Moicano vs Nolan by the Numbers: Breaking Down the Oct. 31 Main Event

UFC Fight Night comes to Meta APEX in Las Vegas on Saturday, Oct. 31, with lightweights Renato Moicano (#12) and Tom Nolan (#14) at the top of the bill. Prelims begin at 2 p.m. local time and the main card at 5 p.m. Here's what the numbers say about the main event and three more matchups on the card.

Moicano vs Nolan. Eleven years separate them: Moicano is 37 and made his Octagon debut in December 2014, while Nolan, 26, arrived in January 2024. "Big Train" stands 6-foot-3 to Moicano's 5-foot-11, though the reach gap is just an inch (73 to 72). On the feet, the Australian brings both volume and power — 4.84 significant strikes landed per minute to the Brazilian's 4.10, and a knockdown average of 0.54, more than three times Moicano's 0.16. Five of Nolan's 11 wins have come by knockout, and five have ended in the first round.

Moicano's path to victory runs through the mat. Eleven of his 21 wins (52%) are submissions, and 14% of his significant strikes come on the ground, double Nolan's 7%. He's also the better defender, avoiding 60% of significant strikes (Nolan: 49%) and stopping 64% of takedown attempts (Nolan: 58%). The catch is getting there: Moicano has landed just 12% of his takedown attempts (6 of 52). On paper, that boils the fight down to one question — can Moicano drag it to the floor before Nolan lands something heavy? The answer may come quickly: Nolan's average UFC fight lasts 7:55, Moicano's 9:24.

• Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith, welterweight. Jamaica's Randy "Rudeboy" Brown (20-8-0) is 5 inches taller and owns a 78-inch reach to Smith's 72. Unbeaten Jacobe Smith (13-0-0) of the United States lands 6.91 significant strikes per minute at 67% accuracy while absorbing 2.77. Ten of his 13 wins have come by knockout, nine of them in the first round, and his average UFC fight lasts just 4:33.
• Lucia Szabova vs Tainara Lisboa, women's flyweight. Slovakia's Szabova, 28, makes her UFC debut. Brazil's Tainara "Thai Panther" Lisboa (7-4-0) splits her finishes evenly, three by knockout and three by submission, and lands 38% of her significant strikes in the clinch. Her average UFC fight runs 13:28.
• Yana Santos vs Luana Santos, women's bantamweight. A ranked meeting of namesakes: Russia's Yana Santos (#6, 17-8-0) against Brazil's Luana Santos (#7, 11-2-0). Both stand 5-foot-6. Yana, 36, is the more accurate and more active striker, landing 58% of her significant strikes at 4.41 per minute, with 39% of that work done in the clinch. Luana, 26, is harder to hit and harder to take down, with 64% strike defense and 86% takedown defense, and five of her 11 wins are submissions.

To catch the full card, be there for the 2 p.m. prelims. Get your seat: Moicano vs Nolan tickets.