Oliveira vs Lopes by the Numbers: UFC 335 Fight-by-Fight Preview

UFC 335 is headlined by two Brazilian finishers, and the stats only make the matchup more intriguing. Charles "Do Bronxs" Oliveira (37-11, #3 at lightweight) has been competing in the Octagon since 2010, and 22 of his 37 wins have come by submission, a 59% clip. Diego Lopes (28-8) didn't make his UFC debut until 2023, is five years younger at 31, and splits his wins right down the middle: 12 by knockout, 12 by submission, with 15 first-round finishes.

On the feet, the numbers point in different directions. Lopes is the busier striker, landing 3.79 significant strikes per minute to Oliveira's 3.23, but he also absorbs far more, 4.65 a minute against Oliveira's 3.05. Oliveira is the more accurate of the two, 56% to 47%. Lopes, though, owns the higher knockdown average, 0.71 to 0.41. And despite giving up an inch in height (5'10" to 5'11"), Oliveira has the longer reach, 74 inches to 72.5. Oliveira's UFC fights average 7:58, Lopes' 11:34.

This one looks likely to be decided on the mat. Oliveira averages 2.29 takedowns and 2.59 submission attempts per 15 minutes, while Lopes stops 69% of takedown attempts and lands 70% of his significant strikes at distance. Oddly enough, the ground accounts for exactly the same share of their offense: 23% of each man's significant strikes. The question is whether Oliveira can get him down, and whether Lopes can keep it standing. Three more bouts on the card are just as interesting on paper:

• Pavlovich vs Pereira, heavyweight. Two knockout artists with zero submission wins between them. Sergei Pavlovich (#3, 21-3) has 16 KO wins, 16 first-round finishes, the highest knockdown average on the card (1.89) and its shortest average fight time at 5:17. He also has a 5-inch reach advantage, 84 inches to 79. The 38-year-old Alex "Poatan" Pereira (13-4, #10 pound-for-pound) has the edge in precision, landing 5.01 significant strikes per minute at 61% accuracy. Eighty-five percent of his wins have come by knockout, and he stops 80% of takedown attempts.
• Pyfer vs Nickal, middleweight. Both are 30, and their styles couldn't be further apart. Joe "Bodybagz" Pyfer (#6, 16-3) is a striker through and through: 85% of his significant strikes come on the feet, with 10 knockouts and a 1.09 knockdown average. Bo Nickal (#14, 9-1) is a wrestler whose numbers look like typos: 3.12 takedowns and 2.27 submission attempts per 15 minutes, 100% takedown defense, and just 1.93 significant strikes absorbed per minute while landing at 62%.
• Moreno vs Johnson, flyweight. Brandon "The Assassin Baby" Moreno (#8, 24-10-2) is built for long nights: his UFC fights average 16:57, and 11 of his 24 wins are submissions. Charles "Inner G" Johnson (20-9) throws more, landing 4.60 significant strikes a minute to Moreno's 3.86, and 13% of his strikes come in the clinch. They share a 70-inch reach.

It all plays out on Dec. 12 at T-Mobile Arena, with early prelims at 2 p.m. PT, prelims at 4 p.m. and the main card at 6 p.m. Get your seat: UFC 335 tickets in Las Vegas.