Oliveira vs Lopes Preview: Submission Game vs Knockdown Power at UFC 335
Twenty-two submission wins on one side, a 0.71 knockdown average on the other. The UFC 335 main event on Saturday, Dec. 12, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas pits #3 lightweight Charles "Do Bronxs" Oliveira (37-11-0) against fellow Brazilian Diego Lopes (28-8-0), who comes in unranked at lightweight. Oliveira, 37, made his Octagon debut in August 2010. Lopes, 31, didn't arrive until May 2023.
Oliveira's game lives on the mat. Twenty-two of his 37 wins have come by submission, 59% of the total, with 10 knockouts and just five decisions. In the UFC he averages 2.29 takedowns and 2.59 submission attempts per 15 minutes, and he spreads his damage around: 18% of his significant strikes land in the clinch and 23% on the ground. The soft spot, if there is one, is his own takedown defense, which sits at 55%.
Lopes is the more dangerous man at range, at least on paper. He has 12 wins by knockout, 12 more by submission and 15 first-round finishes, and his knockdown average of 0.71 is well clear of Oliveira's 0.41. He's busier too, landing 3.79 significant strikes per minute to Oliveira's 3.23. The catch is what comes back. Lopes absorbs 4.65 a minute, which leaves him 0.86 in the red every minute he fights, and his striking defense is just 47%. Oliveira lands more than he takes (3.23 to 3.05), connects at 56% to Lopes' 47%, and defends slightly better at 49%. Seventy percent of Lopes' strikes come standing; for Oliveira it's 59%.
The wrestling numbers may decide how much of that striking ever matters. Lopes averages only 0.82 takedowns per 15 minutes but stops 69% of the attempts he faces, and he attempts 1.30 submissions per 15 minutes himself. Physically, there's not much separating them: Lopes is an inch taller at 5'11", while Oliveira owns the longer reach, 74 inches to 72.5. Lopes' UFC fights average 11:34, Oliveira's 7:58. The key question: can Lopes make the exchanges costly before Oliveira closes the distance and starts hunting for the finish on the ground?
The early prelims begin at 2 p.m. local time, the prelims at 4 p.m. and the main card at 6 p.m. Get your seat: Oliveira vs Lopes tickets.