UFC 333 by the Numbers: Volkanovski, Evloev, Yan and Dvalishvili Compared
UFC 333 goes down on Saturday, Oct. 24, at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. The early prelims start at 6 p.m. local time, the prelims at 8 p.m., and the main card at 10 p.m. Both title fights pit a volume striker against a wrestler, and the numbers make that contrast plain. Here's how the four key matchups stack up on paper.
Volkanovski vs Evloev: output vs wrestling. Featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski ("The Great", 28-4, #2 P4P) defends against the division's #1 contender, the unbeaten Movsar Evloev (20-0). The champion is 38, the challenger 32, and physically there is almost nothing between them: 5'6" against 5'7", with reaches of 71.5 and 72.5 inches. The gap is in how they fight. Volkanovski lands 5.99 significant strikes a minute at 57% accuracy, the highest output of the eight fighters here, and absorbs 3.31. Evloev lands fewer (3.91) but also absorbs fewer (2.80). His real weapon is the takedown: 4.78 per 15 minutes to the champion's 1.63, and he'll be shooting into Volkanovski's 69% takedown defense. Sixteen of Volkanovski's 28 wins have come inside the distance (13 by knockout, three by submission), seven of them in the first round. Evloev has won 65% of his fights on the scorecards and has a 0.00 knockdown average to Volkanovski's 0.30. Their average fight times, 16:50 and 16:00, both run past the three-round mark. Statistically, it comes down to how often Evloev can drag the champion to the mat and how much he eats getting there.
Yan vs Dvalishvili: precision vs pressure. Bantamweight champion Petr Yan ("No Mercy", 20-5, #4 P4P) faces #1-ranked Merab Dvalishvili ("The Machine", 21-5, #9 P4P). They are close in height at 5'7.5" and 5'6", while Dvalishvili holds the reach edge, 68 inches to 67. Yan is the striker: 5.16 significant strikes landed a minute at 55% accuracy, 75% of them on the feet, with a 0.53 knockdown average. Dvalishvili lands fewer and misses more (4.42 a minute at 42%), but absorbs only 2.80 to Yan's 4.24. Then there is the wrestling: 5.97 takedowns per 15 minutes, the highest rate of anyone in this breakdown, against Yan's 86% takedown defense. Dvalishvili lands 21% of his strikes on the ground, Yan 13%. Seventy-six percent of the Georgian's wins have come by decision; for Yan, it's 60% decisions and 35% knockouts. Both tend to go long, averaging 17:38 and 17:36 per fight.
- Kavanagh vs Temirov, flyweight. #6 Lone'er Kavanagh (10-2, age 27) meets #10 Ramazan Temirov ("Temurlan", 20-3, age 29). Temirov gives up two inches in height and four in reach (63 to 67), but 12 of his 20 wins came by knockout, he has 11 first-round finishes, and his knockdown average sits at 3.38 to Kavanagh's 0.37. His fights last 7:24 on average; Kavanagh's run 13:27. The Englishman is the more accurate striker (50% to 41%) with 83% takedown defense, while Temirov has stuffed every takedown attempt so far and lands 87% of his strikes on the feet.
- Volkov vs Kuniev, heavyweight. #2 Alexander Volkov ("Drago", 40-11) takes on #7 Rizvan Kuniev (14-3-1). At 6'7" with an 80-inch reach, Volkov has three inches of height and four of reach on the 6'4" Kuniev. He has 24 knockout wins and 17 first-round finishes, strikes at 58% accuracy and lands 82% of his strikes on the feet. Kuniev strikes at 55% accuracy, absorbs just 2.22 significant strikes a minute, the fewest of the eight fighters here, stops 94% of takedowns, and does 31% of his work in the clinch. The question is whether he can close the distance and turn it into a clinch fight.
Want the whole card, not just the title fights? Be there for the early prelims at 6 p.m. Get your seat: UFC 333 tickets.