Yan vs Dvalishvili Preview: Can 'No Mercy' Keep 'The Machine' Off Him?

Petr Yan stops 86% of the takedowns attempted against him. Merab Dvalishvili averages 5.97 takedowns every 15 minutes. That collision sits at the heart of the bantamweight title fight at UFC 333 on Saturday, Oct. 24, at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, where champion Yan ("No Mercy," 20-5, #4 pound-for-pound) defends against the division's #1 contender, Dvalishvili ("The Machine," 21-5, #9 P4P). Yan is 33 and made his Octagon debut in June 2018; Dvalishvili, 35, got there first, in December 2017.

On the feet, Yan holds the cleaner numbers. He lands 5.16 significant strikes per minute at 55% accuracy, against Dvalishvili's 4.42 at 42%, and he carries real pop, with a 0.53 knockdown average to the Georgian's 0.05. Seven of his 20 wins came by knockout, and he has three first-round finishes. Dvalishvili, though, gets hit less: he absorbs 2.80 significant strikes a minute to Yan's 4.24, even though his 54% striking defense trails Yan's 60%. Size won't settle much. Yan is 5'7.5" to Dvalishvili's 5'6", while the challenger has a one-inch reach edge, 68 to 67.

Then comes the wrestling. Dvalishvili's 5.97 takedowns per 15 minutes dwarf Yan's 1.70, and he hunts submissions more, too, with 0.35 attempts per 15 to Yan's 0.11. His strike breakdown shows where his fights go: 21% of his significant strikes land on the ground and 15% in the clinch, compared with 13% and 12% for Yan, who does 75% of his work at range. Dvalishvili's own takedown defense sits at 76%. Neither man is in a hurry: 76% of Dvalishvili's wins have come on the scorecards, as have 60% of Yan's, and their average fight times are nearly identical at 17:38 and 17:36. The question is whether Yan's takedown defense can hold long enough for his accuracy and power to become the story, or whether the sheer number of attempts eventually breaks it down.

The night starts with the early prelims at 6 p.m. local time, followed by the prelims at 8 p.m. and the main card at 10 p.m. Give yourself time to reach Etihad Arena before the first bout. Get your seat: Yan vs Dvalishvili tickets.